Hands played at the Palmerston North Bridge Club published here for discussion and question and answer.
Any bidding shown is an actual auction and not necessarily recommended.
Please feel free to participate and make suggestions.
Wednesday, 2 December 2015
Senior/Senior Reserve 1/12/2015 Hand 6
Board 6 East Deals E-W Vul
♠
A 8 3
♥
K Q 10
♦
Q 10 9
♣
A J 7 5
♠
Q 9 7
♥
7
♦
J 8 6
♣
K Q 10 9 8 6
N
W
E
S
♠
J 6 5 2
♥
A J 9
♦
A K 7 3
♣
3 2
♠
K 10 4
♥
8 6 5 4 3 2
♦
5 4 2
♣
4
NS 2♥; W 3♣; EW 2♦; E 2♣; EW 1♠; Par −100: NS 3♥×−1
Q: Should West transfer to 3C? A: I don't think so Q: Should North re-open bidding after long pause by West? A: I think so
Result is a catastrophe for EW. Three down vulnerable. OK, double dummy, East should win the initial heart lead and immediately lead the jack of spades. It is difficult for South to resist winning with the king, but by doing so would forfeit her only entry to run the hearts. In practice, East (yours truly) tried to set up the clubs with predictable results.
So you would take it out even with no intervention from South? Interesting. On a good day EW could make 3NT if the clubs run. I thought we were pretty unlucky with the breaks. Of course, if North doubled and South bid 2H then 3C seems pretty safe.
Yes Ray I think it is right to take it out of 1NT. I did some double dummy (DD) analysis which is not real bridge but can give some idea of what might happen. Over a thousand hands playing DD taking out to 3C was worth about 60% compared with passing 1NT. That is further simplified a little as I did not take into account the possibility of the opponents having a contract. It would get really hard to take every possibility into account.
At IMPs taking out to 3C was worth about +1Imp per board DD.
Our method to take out to 3C goes through Stayman. So on Tuesday night I also wondered about what I would or should do over the actual 2S response - I can elect to play the 4=3 spade fit. However it seems with the very good six card club suit that 3C is on balance better than 2S even taking into account the possibility of a five card spade suit in the 1NT opening. In fact it was more clear to pull 2S to 3C than 1NT to 3C in my DD analysis.
I think I tested this sort of thing ages ago and found something like the 6 card minor needed a combined 23 count. The problem is that if pard has the AC so the suit runs, he will have 8-10 left to cover all three side suits. So pretty likely that there is a suit not stopped, or even with one stop which is taken out at trick 1, then there are only 8 tricks on top
That's true. I don't think we ever contemplated 3NT. However, 1NT seemed a pretty safe contract. Even if partner didn't have the ace but three low clubs then all it takes is Ax by one opponent to allow declarer to get at the clubs. Even without that, there is the fallback of a spade finesse to get into dummy. The situation at our table was quite unusual. How often will a pair with half the points and nine hearts between them not compete?
Bizarre bidding from South in above auction.
ReplyDeleteAt our table:
1NT ap
Two questions:
Q: Should West transfer to 3C? A: I don't think so
Q: Should North re-open bidding after long pause by West? A: I think so
Result is a catastrophe for EW. Three down vulnerable. OK, double dummy, East should win the initial heart lead and immediately lead the jack of spades. It is difficult for South to resist winning with the king, but by doing so would forfeit her only entry to run the hearts. In practice, East (yours truly) tried to set up the clubs with predictable results.
I was planning to takeout to 3C.
ReplyDeleteI agree north should double.
So you would take it out even with no intervention from South? Interesting. On a good day EW could make 3NT if the clubs run. I thought we were pretty unlucky with the breaks. Of course, if North doubled and South bid 2H then 3C seems pretty safe.
DeleteYes Ray I think it is right to take it out of 1NT. I did some double dummy (DD) analysis which is not real bridge but can give some idea of what might happen. Over a thousand hands playing DD taking out to 3C was worth about 60% compared with passing 1NT. That is further simplified a little as I did not take into account the possibility of the opponents having a contract. It would get really hard to take every possibility into account.
DeleteAt IMPs taking out to 3C was worth about +1Imp per board DD.
Our method to take out to 3C goes through Stayman. So on Tuesday night I also wondered about what I would or should do over the actual 2S response - I can elect to play the 4=3 spade fit. However it seems with the very good six card club suit that 3C is on balance better than 2S even taking into account the possibility of a five card spade suit in the 1NT opening. In fact it was more clear to pull 2S to 3C than 1NT to 3C in my DD analysis.
I think I tested this sort of thing ages ago and found something like the 6 card minor needed a combined 23 count. The problem is that if pard has the AC so the suit runs, he will have 8-10 left to cover all three side suits. So pretty likely that there is a suit not stopped, or even with one stop which is taken out at trick 1, then there are only 8 tricks on top
ReplyDeleteThat's true. I don't think we ever contemplated 3NT. However, 1NT seemed a pretty safe contract. Even if partner didn't have the ace but three low clubs then all it takes is Ax by one opponent to allow declarer to get at the clubs. Even without that, there is the fallback of a spade finesse to get into dummy. The situation at our table was quite unusual. How often will a pair with half the points and nine hearts between them not compete?
ReplyDelete