Hands played at the Palmerston North Bridge Club published here for discussion and question and answer.
Any bidding shown is an actual auction and not necessarily recommended.
Please feel free to participate and make suggestions.
Same bidding until 5D when South bid 4C. This wasn't ace asking nor did the partnership play cue bids. So North was puzzled. Decided that whatever it meant the KC was looking good, thus decided to bid 4H. Even without cue bids this could only have a limited range of meaning. South then bid 5D. North then decided South must have been making some sort of slam invite and he had a hand to accept so bid 6D.
At the table 6D made, but only after some help from defence, whereas a more optimal line of play wouldn't have needed the misdefend. There are 10 tricks on top, assuming trumps are no worse than 3-1. So declarer should think where are the next two tricks coming from. Setting up clubs is a possibility but requires a 4-3 break (say 60%+) and u can only draw 2 rounds of trumps in order to ruff twice, so relies on the hand with short clubs also having short trumps (an "odd-even short short" so say 20% of the 60% if trumps didn't break 2-2. So, I think that comes to a bit over 50%. OK, but compare to spades. A double finesse should work about 75% of time with either a 3-3 or 4-2 break. Plus 50% of the remainder KQ will be onside, so u are looking at 87%+, less a few % for 5-1 breaks etc. The line of ditching a spade on the AH and ruffing spades loses due to insufficient entries (which is when oppo came to the party). Anything better?
The 75% already accounts for both honours being onside. The division of the spade honours is 25% both onside, 50% split, and 25% both offside.
If trumps are 2=2 then you are home with two club ruffs. If not go after spades - 75% the 3-1s.
If you play on clubs you maybe able to get two ruffs even when they are not 4=3 - say they are 2=5. You can over ruff. If they are 5=2 there is a small chance they will not be able to overruff. I think the two lines are close.
Maybe you should even be playing dQ first to cater to JTxx onside. That gives an extra 5%. But may give up a trick when west can ruff later in front of dummy.
Nice bidding to get to 6D.
The auctions 1M 2m; raise are a gap in Acol or Standard bidding. A raise is a minimum and there is not immediately a convenient way to show extras and your fit. To counter that I have played:
1M 2m 3m = min 3 higher suit = splinter 3NT = 14-16 with a fit no shortage 4m = 17-19 with a fit no shortage
There is only one hand type that is difficult and that is after 1M 2D; ? and you have a club splinter. You have to by pass 3NT and if partner is minimum with club wastage 4NT could be too high.
Same bidding until 5D when South bid 4C. This wasn't ace asking nor did the partnership play cue bids. So North was puzzled. Decided that whatever it meant the KC was looking good, thus decided to bid 4H. Even without cue bids this could only have a limited range of meaning. South then bid 5D. North then decided South must have been making some sort of slam invite and he had a hand to accept so bid 6D.
ReplyDeleteAt the table 6D made, but only after some help from defence, whereas a more optimal line of play wouldn't have needed the misdefend. There are 10 tricks on top, assuming trumps are no worse than 3-1. So declarer should think where are the next two tricks coming from. Setting up clubs is a possibility but requires a 4-3 break (say 60%+) and u can only draw 2 rounds of trumps in order to ruff twice, so relies on the hand with short clubs also having short trumps (an "odd-even short short" so say 20% of the 60% if trumps didn't break 2-2. So, I think that comes to a bit over 50%. OK, but compare to spades. A double finesse should work about 75% of time with either a 3-3 or 4-2 break. Plus 50% of the remainder KQ will be onside, so u are looking at 87%+, less a few % for 5-1 breaks etc. The line of ditching a spade on the AH and ruffing spades loses due to insufficient entries (which is when oppo came to the party). Anything better?
ReplyDeleteThe 75% already accounts for both honours being onside. The division of the spade honours is 25% both onside, 50% split, and 25% both offside.
ReplyDeleteIf trumps are 2=2 then you are home with two club ruffs. If not go after spades - 75% the 3-1s.
If you play on clubs you maybe able to get two ruffs even when they are not 4=3 - say they are 2=5. You can over ruff. If they are 5=2 there is a small chance they will not be able to overruff. I think the two lines are close.
Maybe you should even be playing dQ first to cater to JTxx onside. That gives an extra 5%. But may give up a trick when west can ruff later in front of dummy.
Nice bidding to get to 6D.
The auctions 1M 2m; raise are a gap in Acol or Standard bidding. A raise is a minimum and there is not immediately a convenient way to show extras and your fit. To counter that I have played:
1M 2m
3m = min
3 higher suit = splinter
3NT = 14-16 with a fit no shortage
4m = 17-19 with a fit no shortage
There is only one hand type that is difficult and that is after 1M 2D; ? and you have a club splinter. You have to by pass 3NT and if partner is minimum with club wastage 4NT could be too high.
Duh. I have clearly set the standard low for daft comment.
ReplyDelete