Hands played at the Palmerston North Bridge Club published here for discussion and question and answer.
Any bidding shown is an actual auction and not necessarily recommended.
Please feel free to participate and make suggestions.
With only 16 hcp and notwithstanding the solid diamonds, I think the invite is marginal. In particular hearts are a real danger as they were here - partner has at most three opposite our three small.
Perhaps if you insist on moving 2S is better as it highlights the heart problem and you are therefore more likely to get to the correct strain.
I felt at VUL at IMPs I needed only a 30% or so shot at game so I stretched. DDA indicates it is 28%. Also another factor is that the hand is played from the wrong side with 2 kings exposed.
Had a rethink. u need a ~33% shot at game Vul with balanced hands. This assumes u can go 1 or 2 light, with the comparison being 2NT either making or going 1 light. With more unbalanced shapes the % reduces as there are more hands where 2NT fails as well. However the decision point here is really 1NT, so probably need to do some calc re the 1NT vs 3NT and 1NT vs 2NT, which probably leads to the overall % chance required increasing quite a bit
With only 16 hcp and notwithstanding the solid diamonds, I think the invite is marginal. In particular hearts are a real danger as they were here - partner has at most three opposite our three small.
ReplyDeletePerhaps if you insist on moving 2S is better as it highlights the heart problem and you are therefore more likely to get to the correct strain.
I felt at VUL at IMPs I needed only a 30% or so shot at game so I stretched. DDA indicates it is 28%. Also another factor is that the hand is played from the wrong side with 2 kings exposed.
ReplyDeleteHad a rethink. u need a ~33% shot at game Vul with balanced hands. This assumes u can go 1 or 2 light, with the comparison being 2NT either making or going 1 light. With more unbalanced shapes the % reduces as there are more hands where 2NT fails as well. However the decision point here is really 1NT, so probably need to do some calc re the 1NT vs 3NT and 1NT vs 2NT, which probably leads to the overall % chance required increasing quite a bit
ReplyDelete