| Board 7 South Deals Both Vul |
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EW 6N; EW 6♠; EW 5♥; EW 4♣; EW 2♦; Par −1440
| West | North | East | South |
| Pass | |||
| 1 ♣ | Pass | 1 ♠ | Pass |
| 1 NT | Pass | 2 NT | Pass |
| 4 ♠ | Pass | 5 ♠ | Pass |
| 6 ♠ | All pass |
| Lead: ♥ J |
At another table:p 1 ♣ p 1 ♠ p 4 ♠ p 4nt p 5 ♥ p 6 ♠ ap. Lead=♥ J
Standard six spades contract. Standard lead of JH. Three rounds of trumps with no bad news. On third round of spades North discards seven of hearts which I am told shows an interest in diamonds. I take two rounds of hearts and learn the bad news when North discards. So it is cherchez la femme. This is where logic deserted me. I assumed that since North had indicated diamonds then South was more likely to have the queen of clubs. What I should have done instead, I think, is used the rule of vacant places. South has six vacant places to North’s nine, so the odds are nine to six that North has the missing queen. I would like someone else’s opinion on this, or maybe I am missing a better way of playing it anyway. Commiserations to the pair who played against the Hurleys on this board ;-)
ReplyDeleteHi Ray
ReplyDeleteI think you may be able to get an even better count by losing a diamond and ruffing a diamond. That way, you end up with a 6:3 vacant places ratio. North is twice as likely as South to have the missing queen. HTH.
Ray
We played against Bob and Ev. Evelyn ruffed the fourth heart then exited Ace and another diamond. The defense can't play clubs so they have to play a third diamond. At this point you have south marked as 3=4=3+=?. Therefore South has at most three clubs so the odds are better than 4:3 on that north has the cQ.
ReplyDeleteBut doesn't the vacant places analysis give you an even better ratio of 2:1?
ReplyDeleteThis could lead to an 'educational' hand. I was puzzled as to why Ev picked on me to have the CQ. Was I was holding my cards too tight with white knuckles showing, was my fake "not interested in this hand" too fake! But it is just good application of vacant spaces. Well done Ev.
ReplyDeleteAfter the major suits have been played vacant spaces says it is 9:6. The subsequent information is that both parties have 3 or more diamonds. That shouldn't affect the odds but superficially seems to reduce the 9 to a 6 and the 6 to a 3 so ends up with Ray's 6:3 or 2;1 ratio. Comments welcome
I think in fact that Evelyn had a perfect count as North had thrown two diamonds and a club on the third spade and third and fourth heart. South had followed suit so she had seen all of the spades, hearts and diamonds and north was 2=2=5 and south 3=4=3 meaning that clubs must be 4=3 with north having four.
ReplyDeleteYes, you are right as usual Wayne. North has got fewer vacant places once hearts have been played since s/he must discard diamonds. But doesn't Evelyn risk going two down by ruffing out the hearts if the club is wrong? The odds aren't that overwhelming for North having the missing queen.
ReplyDeleteNo, at trick 12 if the JC loses a club must come back so Ev wins trick 13 with the TC.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I should have discarded 2 clubs and 1 diamond?
that should be AC at trick 13
ReplyDelete