| Board 7 South Deals Both Vul |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EW 7N; EW 7♥; EW 7♦; EW 3♠; EW 4♣; Par −2220
| West | North | East | South |
| Pass | |||
| 1 ♥ | Pass | 2 ♦ | Pass |
| 2 NT | Pass | 3 ♥ | Pass |
| 3 NT | Pass | 4 NT | All pass |
| Lead: ♣ Q |
At another table:p 1 ♥ p 2 ♦ p 2nt p 3nt ap
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
West has shown 15+ balanced, east has 15 balanced, so invited (unlike the other table). West declined the invite given the 4333 (and also at the lower end of the assumed 15-19). Are there some features of East's hand than suggest doing more than 4NT?
ReplyDeleteDDA has slam is very good (72%) with the east hand. If we exchange the T9 of diamonds with the 32 of diamonds the slam is 60%. However with slam DDA there is a declarer bias so 60% is more like line ball. Its the quality of the suit that swings the decision here.
A play query. There is a 2 way finesse for the QD. The opening lead by North indicates QJC and therefore South is slightly more probably to hold the QD on vacant spaces grounds. But finessing thru South u have to give up playing a top diamond honour first if wanting to cater for a 4-1 break and thus the chance of dropping the singleton queen. Alternatively I could guard against the singleton queen with North but give up on the 4-1 break. Which is the better line? At the table I thought, "stuffed if I know" and plonked down the Ace.
I don't think you should assume 15-19. That is the range for 2NT but with 18-19 I think you can make a quantitative bid of your own. Therefore partner's raise is based on you having 15-17.
DeleteIn the play I don't think there is enough information to not take the technical line in diamonds which is to play the ace and finesse.
DeleteYes, I see what u are saying re the min max range.
DeleteI should have clarified that the DDA %s above were for 15-16hcp hands, so I am suggesting that east had enough to go on anyway, Not sure that the west should accept a (15-17) invite. The 4333 isn't appealing, no tens, and controls about average for a 16 count.
If East plays it (as at our table) then I tend to go with a tip from Zia. Play the jack from hand and if South follows low smoothly then go up with the ace and play North for the queen. If South hesitates, of course, and doesn't have the queen you let the director sort it out.
ReplyDeleteThis would be a good hand for LTC. East would know at 3H west had 4333 shape with 4h 6.5 to 7 losers and therefore 5-6 cards higher than J. At worst 2K & 4Q. Therefore worth a 3S RKCB in hearts bid. With 0 or 3 KC response which must be 3KC . Q of trump ask and K ask reveal Q trump and remaining K so two chances for slam on q finesse or hearts break 3-3 (~ 70% chance). Therefore bid 6nt.
ReplyDeleteIn ACOL there is quite a bit of sublety over the 2NT rebid. Here 3NT denies 4 spades, as east may have 3 hearts and 4 spades, as WB pointed out to me, so west has to be 4333 and east can factor that into his decision to pass/invite/go direct. In the above DDA I had included 4=4-(3-2) shapes. WB has also done a hand by hand analysis of east vs a 15 hcp 4333 which shows slam is not good. The difference between his and my results (using 15-16hcp) is that there is a more serious bias in DDA than I has assumed, because starting with a KJT u are "setting up" the bias for locating the Q
ReplyDeleteAt our table South opened a frisky 2S which makes it more awkward to get to the slam. My partner doubled which happens not to be as effective as bidding 2NT. Bidding petered out in 3NT. In certain circumstances, however, a double could be more effective since it gives partner the opportunity of leaving it in.
ReplyDelete