| Board 4 West Deals Both Vul |
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NS 4♥; NS 3N; NS 3♦; NS 2♣; EW 1♠; Par +620
| West | North | East | South |
| 2 ♠ | Pass | Pass | Dbl |
| Pass | 3 ♥ | All pass |
| Lead: ♠ 7 |
At another table:1 ♠ p 1nt x 2 ♠ 3 ♥ p 3 ♠ ap. Lead=♣ J
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| Board 4 West Deals Both Vul |
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NS 4♥; NS 3N; NS 3♦; NS 2♣; EW 1♠; Par +620
| West | North | East | South |
| 2 ♠ | Pass | Pass | Dbl |
| Pass | 3 ♥ | All pass |
| Lead: ♠ 7 |
At another table:1 ♠ p 1nt x 2 ♠ 3 ♥ p 3 ♠ ap. Lead=♣ J
NS play Lebensohl so 3H shows 8-10pts. South has an "average" 16count. Should they bid game at MPs? What does "average" mean? More on that later.
ReplyDeleteThe results are in for the first question. Passing gets 54%, 4H gets 46%. may depend slightly about what assumptions you make around the weak 2 opener. I restricted pard to 4-5 hearts, as with 6 and 8-10hcp he will likely go direct to game.
ReplyDeleteActually I made a slight mistake - North was set to be 8-9 hcp. So the extra hcp will almost certainly tip it in favour of going to game. However I have done a further set of analyses on what 15 counts u should proceed on given u have a 2443 shape and 15hcp. Excluding hands that have wasted spade values (KQJ) yields 44% in favour of passing, ie the actual hand must have bad features. However: setting controls(A=2,K=1) to <6 didn't alter the dial. Ditto for specifying top4 hearts=1. Ditto Aces <2. However no tens did raise the level to 49%. Somehow that hand above is just bad.
ReplyDeleteSomething Wayne mentioned to me recently was that as hcp increases there is a non linear increase in the type of high cards. I tested this on 4333 and 4432 shapes. With a 15hcp u would otherwise expect the average number of each high card to be 1.5. But Aces=1.8, Kings 1.5, Queens 1.2, Jacks 1.0. A+K=3.2; Controls=5.0. I also looks at what happened when a KQJ is eliminated from the selected hands as per the above for spades. Now: A=2.1; K=1.2;Q=1.0; J=0.8; A+K=3.4; Controls=5.5. The hand above is below average in controls and aces, not that the analysis showed much impact of this.
ReplyDelete